The UK, US and Eurozone in the week ahead

  • US non-farm payrolls
  • Bank of England rate decision
  • ISM Manufacturing and Services Updates

monday august 1st

Markets in Switzerland are closed on the Swiss National Day. Overnight, we have Japan’s Manufacturing PMI, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI, ANZ Jobs and Australia’s MI Inflation Gauge. We have a batch of manufacturing PMIs from Eurozone countries, including Spain, Italy, France, as well as the final services PMI from Germany. We also have Italian and Eurozone unemployment. There are also updates on UK and US manufacturing PMIs. There is a Canadian holiday and also construction spending in the United States. Monday’s big earnings announcements come from:

  • Activision
  • Arista Networks
  • Budget Reviews
  • Devon Energy
  • Loews
  • Mosaic
  • pinterest
  • Discovery of Warner Bros.

Tuesday August 2

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest interest rate decision. It has raised its key cash rate in each of its last three meetings, taking it to levels not seen more than three years ago. We have finally seen Australian dollar gains since mid-July after a massive sell-off since February of this year. Part of this is due to the RBA tightening, although most of the recent gains have been due to a sell-off in the US Dollar, despite the ferocity of the Federal Reserve. Tuesday morning also sees the release of UK National House Price Index. From the Eurozone we have the Spanish Unemployment, and later the Canadian Manufacturing PMI. In the United States, there are JOLTS job openings and total vehicle sales in neighborhoods. The biggest wins include:

  • AMD
  • Airbnb
  • Alkami Technology
  • BP
  • caterpillar
  • Fox Corporation
  • Jet Blue Airways
  • Marriott International
  • western oil
  • PayPal
  • Starbucks

Wednesday August 3

Overnight we have the Australian Retail Sales and the Caixin Services PMI in China. Next we have the German Trade Balance followed by a stack of Services PMIs from Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the Eurozone itself. We also have Italy and Eurozone retail sales, as well as UK and Eurozone end services PMIs. From the United States, we have the highlight of today’s data, ISM Services PMI factory order tracking and weekly update on crude oil inventories. The main revenue reports come from:

  • black rock
  • SVC Health
  • eBay
  • Lucid Group
  • Marathon oil
  • MGM Resorts
  • Modern
  • press company
  • Plug hole
  • Robinhood Markets
  • TripAdvisor
  • under protection
  • YUM BRANDS

Thursday August 4

At the start, we have the Australian trade balance. Then there are German Factory Orders and the ECB Economic Bulletin. From the UK we have construction expenditure and the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) rate decision. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), accelerated in the second half of last year. But it has positively soared in 2022. In July, the latest update of the headline CPI, which includes food and energy, jumped 9.4% from a year ago. This is a strong increase from the previous reading of +9.1%. It was also above consensus expectations and takes this measure of inflation to a new 40-year high.

The news boosted the likelihood of a 50 basis point hike in the BoE’s key discount rate at this meeting. If so, it would be the first time the Bank has hiked rates by that much since it was granted independence by Labor Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown in 1997. It will also be the sixth consecutive hike rates in the UK since December last year. But it is not done. While being concerned about capping inflation and seeing it come down, the Bank will be concerned about putting even more pressure on households with rising mortgage costs on top of energy and everything else.

Later we have job cuts at the US challengers and weekly unemployment claims. FOMC member Loretta Mester is expected to speak. The main revenue reports come from:

  • ADT
  • AMC Entertainment
  • Amgen
  • Beyond meat
  • Cigna
  • duke energy
  • Lordstown Engines
  • Lyft
  • Nicholas
  • Daddy Johns
  • Restaurant brands
  • Shake Shack
  • Galactic Virgo
  • We work

friday august 5

First, there is Japanese household spending and leading indicators. Next, we have a monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia. German industrial production follows, as well as the French trade balance, industrial production and the private wage bill. In addition, there are Swiss foreign exchange reserves, Italian industrial production and a speech by Bank of England MPC member Huw Pill. To end the week, we will have the latest update on US non-farm payrolls. These continue to show steady improvement with the unemployment rate returning to pre-pandemic levels and hovering around 50-year lows. But noteworthy is the steady and sustained increase in weekly UI claims that has emerged since early June. Today’s top earnings reports include:

  • AMC Networks
  • Berkshire Hathaway
  • DraftKings
  • western digital

David Morrison is an analyst at Trade Nation. Trade Nation was created with a specific mission to help clients achieve their trading goals by changing the way they interact with the financial markets. Along with offering full transparency and ensuring that all clients get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means clients can be sure they are getting the trading experience they deserve. Visit www.tradenation.com to learn more

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